What Italy needs to qualify for the World Cup

The direct match of the Olimpico will not be decisive, it will still be necessary to wait for the last day to determine the first classification of group C. Below the regulation and all the possible combinations according to the various results of Italy-Switzerland

Italy and Switzerland are paired at 14 points in group C of qualification ai 2022 World Cup, already sure to occupy the first two positions arithmetically even at the end of the ten scheduled days. It remains to be decided in which order, which makes all the difference in the world since only the first ranking gets the pass for Qatar 2022. The second, on the other hand, will have to go through the play-off lottery, which was already fatal to the Italy in 2018. Roberto Mancini’s hope is, of course, to avoid this scenario, closing the qualifying round as leaders. It will be fundamental direct confrontation on Friday 12 November at the Olympic stadium, then there will be just another day with Italy playing Northern Ireland and Switzerland at home against Bulgaria.

Possible scenarios

read also



Mancini also loses Immobile: Scamacca is called up

One thing is certain: the qualification will not be decided in the match in Rome, it will be necessary in any case wait for the last 90 minutes. In case of equal points, in fact, first of all we do not look at the direct matches, but the general goal difference and secondly the number of goals scored. Italy, two days from the end, is ahead with a +11 (12 goals scored) against Switzerland’s +9 (with 10 goals scored). In case of victory in the head to head, therefore, a draw on the last day or a failure by the Swiss would be enough for the Azzurri. In case of a tieinstead, Italy would start on the last day with a 2 goal goal difference advantage to manage. If Roberto Mancini’s team were to lose the clash of the Olimpico, should hope for a defeat of Switzerland against Bulgaria and, at the same time, beat Northern Ireland hoping to have the goal difference in favor.

Absolute parity hypothesis: between direct matches and fair play

deepening



The four names suggested by the championship to Mancini

What happens, however, if Italy and Switzerland conclude in perfect parity your path in the qualifying round for the World Cup? This would occur in the case in which, in addition to the parity of points, there is also that in the goal difference, in the total goal count and in the direct match. A hypothesis possible only if the Olimpico match ends in a draw, as happened in the first leg, to then create a situation of perfect balance (both in the calculation of the goal difference and the goals scored) with the results of the last day. At that point i would become decisive goals scored away in the direct match, this means that only 0-0 could be good for Italy: from 1-1 onwards, any result would prove Switzerland right. A draw without goals, on the other hand, would create a further situation of equality and the last discriminating factor provided for by the regulation, that of the fair play. This means that the yellow and red cards accumulated in the qualification path would become decisive and, with two games to go, Italy and Switzerland start in perfect equality in this too. A lot of balance, a match that counts as a final and 180 essential minutes to get the pass for Qatar 2022.

We want to thank the author of this article for this amazing content

What Italy needs to qualify for the World Cup

Bofads