Environmentalists and conservationists will be happy. It looks like the world after will not be quite the same as the world before. This is what emerges from a study carried out by the Roland Berger cabinet, published on Tuesday, December 7. According to this survey, carried out among 200 air transport experts and 7,000 travelers, the taste for air travel could sting coming out of the Covid-19 pandemic. And the fall would matter. According to the study, air travel should decline by 20% once the crisis is over.
And it is the environmental concerns that are at the origin of the beginning of disenchantment with the plane. According to the study, indicates the cabinet Roland Berger, “Demand will be different, passengers will look for environmentally friendly airlines”. An approach that seems to continue the so-called movement of ” flight shame “,” The shame of taking the plane “, born in Scandinavia shortly before the onset of the pandemic.
However, if future tourists “Will travel, for example, more by train over certain distances”As the study indicates, the number of air trips should nonetheless increase by 1%, in particular through a catch-up effect. Indeed, many travelers frustrated at having been prevented from traveling during the crisis will want to make up for lost time. The growing importance of ecological concerns could lead to the development of the use of “green” fuels. Today, the famous Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), alternative fuels, are used very little by airlines, because they are charged six to seven times more expensive than kerosene.
Decline in business travel
Soon shunned by some of the passengers, the plane will also have to face the decline in business travel. Those who, however, bring the most to companies. After the pandemic, “Business travelers will venture away from the office less often, but longer”, still provides for the study. In Europe, travel for professional reasons should drop by 12%.
In addition to protecting the environment, this change in behavior is linked to the development of virtual mobility during the crisis, that is to say the implementation of virtual meeting technologies. Nevertheless, this decline could prove to be problematic for certain companies such as Air France-KLM, which have focused their recovery on the development of high-end products mainly driven by business travel. A few months ago, the company headed by Ben Smith had already started to influence its discourse. She said she wanted to regain prosperity by also targeting wealthy tourists who travel in business class.
At best, companies will have to take their troubles patiently. According to the survey, it is not until 2026 that the long-haul will manage to stabilize and return to its 2019 levels. Before the crisis. However, the number of long-haul trips is expected to decline by 10%, much more than domestic flights, which are expected to decline by only 1%. The virtual stability of short or medium-haul trips owes everything to the rise in power, during the pandemic, of the fashion for ” staycationing “,” Domestic tourism “.
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Air transport is expected to suffer from environmental concerns